I appreciate your reply. Thank you. But to me (& most of my peer group), collapse is well underway. I live in Australia... one of the highest living standards in the world. BUT... I was born in 1947 in one of Australias capital cities (Brisbane). Today here are a list of problems not present in the 50's & 60's as I grew into my twenties & bought my first house that cost me 20% more than my annual salary. All of these problems are directly related to massive decline in available energy per capita & therefore the cost per unit of energy (petrol/gasoline for example.
Problems today not present in 1960's. Or present at extremely small unnoticed rates
1). Homelessness... & growing
2). Drug epidemic & drug addiction
3). Youth suicide (Australia about 7th globally.... so much for our high living standards).
4). Unaffordable housing. (My first house in 1979 cost me 20% more than my annual salary. Today average house price close to AUD$1.5m. Average full time salary about AUD$80,000. So just under 20 years of 100% of your (Before Tax) salary to buy an average home in a capital city..... This is COLLAPSE.).
5). Fuel costs. In 1970 in Australia petrol/gasoline cost 4 cents per litre (not a misprint). It cost me AUD$2.00 to fill my V8 Ford in 1970. Today my V8 Land Cruiser (120 Litre tank). Costs about $250 to fill. This is Energy Collapse due to decreasing EROEI.
6). In 1960's & 1970, it cost about $1 million AUD to build 2 km of 2 lane road... today, due to energy & employment costs it is AUD $500 million per km for freeways in cities.
7) Because of the above figure, infrastructure in Australia is horrendous. Our cities are traffic clogged, our secondary country roads are unimproved, our tertiary roads are pot holed disasters.
8). City life has declined alarmingly, small apartments, clogged streets, extensive 90+ minute commutes for outliers in cheaper fringe suburbs packed & inadequate public transport, no intracity metro systems. Add this to the drug & homeless problems noted above....City life declines alarmingly.
9). So escape to lovely country towns... we have lots of these. And yes, there is a major demographic shift to these lovely towns. But you should have done that 25 years ago. Now, real estate prices in these life style towns are the same as the cities... in other words, basically unaffordable to the average person.
10). Australia has huge coal, natural gas & uranium reserves.... BUT we have NO fuel/oil. We import 97% of our petrol/diesel needs. We are totally dependent on middle east Sheikhdoms & other dodgy countries for our agriculture, construction & transport industries, let alone private transport. We are 3 weeks (storage is 20 to 25 days) away from disaster. Let this sink in for a moment. Australia is less than 1 month away from no food in supermarkets, no agriculture transport, no food processing or distribution. If this is not impending collapse... please reassure me that solar panels & Tesla trucks will save us. OMG?
11). Because of our coal fired electricity system & our coal exports and our car culture and our cities horrendous public transport options... Australia is the highest per capita polluters of Carbon. BOOM. There goes our fresh, clean, green image
12). A final quick note... New Zealand's energy situation (No oil. No coal. No natural gas). Is even worse than Australias.
All of the above problems are a direct result of declining energy.
So... to me, civilisation decline is obvious. And worsening. Let's revisit this discussion and observations in 2030, and 2050.
Aa for Global Warming.. thank you for the reference. Yes, crops will still be grown in high temperatures of the future. But, increasing droughts, farm land deterioration, lower crop yields will lead to increasing food insecurity. I was in India last month.. my third visit since 1977. A classic case of overshoot, food insecurity and poverty. Go check out the families living in the dirt under freeways... offer their begging children a $5 bill.... and watch what happens. This is all a result of the collapse of our oil dependent civilisation. Add in sea level rise of over 1 metre by 2100... Mass migration inlands to places already overcrowded, city inundation (already happening in Miami & coastal areas everywhere... see Bangladesh disaster), food insecurity and energy decline as described in the article we are discussing. It's all over for millions of people. And that's collapse.
Thank you for your reply. I really appreciate it. As I stated in my first comment, EROEI (and Energy Density).... both declining significantly, are never discussed but are the critical parameters for industrial civilisation. Your article was brilliant.
Collapse in my mind means on the ground, about to die -- not dead. Remains to be seen if complete western civilizational death actually ensues or if sufficient adjustments to the changed condition are made by one and all (including those world travelers driving V8 landcruisers at home). Like I said, the fact that actual, irreversible collapse hasn't happened yet over the last 50 or so years since the problem hit us suggests to me the body civic is still somewhat successfully fighting it.
What I'd like to understand is... about both large city and country town housing: if these prices come to be, it must be because they can sell at these prices.
Since I can testify to the truth that basic housing is growing unaffordable for average people... I wonder if, and how, there are so "more than average people" who can pay those prices.
By the way, all the trends you report are taking place, with small and unessential differences, in Europe.
"... if these prices come to be, it must be because they can sell at these prices." No, at least in the US, the housing market is pretty much stagnant. People owning them at present are reluctant to drop their asking prices because they've got mortgages to pay off when selling (hence the still high prices). Here's a more complete description and explanation of what's going on -- in the US, anyway: https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/delistings-surge-as-housing-market
This is undoubtedly the most important metric in the coming collapse of industrial/technological civilization. Declining EROEI below maintenance needs PLUS Global Warming/Sea Level rise will doom modern civilization well before the end of this century.
Don't know that "collapse" is the best word to use here. The EROI data indicate the change has been very strongly affecting western-style societies since the 1970s oil shocks -- and still nothing acute has happened to indicate a rapid collapse is on order.
This lack of collapse when significant petroleum depletion is already here and having effects is the case, I suspect, because people have been working hard, consciously or not, to accommodate the various human systems to this depletion. The accommodations just haven't been precipitate, only piecemeal and incremental, because the depletion-caused changes haven't been precipitate either. I suspect, for example, that the recent marked changes to the US political climate mark will itself eventually prove to be a significant adaptive change to petroleum depletion.
Right now it appears that petroleum is functioning almost like a hydraulic fluid in that it is no longer is adding much net surplus energy to the functioning of the whole system, but is instead helping transmit energy from other, richer parts of energy-yielding systems like coal and natural gas.
As to that possible global warming you speak of, take a read of the agronomist Denis Murphy's review of humanity and previous changes in climate contained in his book, "People, Plants, and Genes" that he's kindly made open source at https://www.researchgate.net/publication/285992992_People_Plants_and_Genes_The_Story_of_Crops_and_Humanity. The book puts the matter of past climate changes affecting man into proper archeological and geological context. It is thorough, well-written, and can be anxiety-relieving.
" the recent marked changes to the US political climate mark will itself eventually prove to be a significant adaptive change to petroleum depletion."
Yes. It dawned on me too... that this "do it for the environment" propaganda from every direction + illiberal forceful measures by governments to, well, compel people to "do it for the environment" may be motivated by an awareness of global resource depletion/insufficiency, which is not disclosed to the general public for obvious reasons.
Wouldn't want to yell "Fire!" in a crowded theater, is what I think you are getting at as a reason for the possible governmental subterfuge/environmental propaganda. Better that we all know the real facts , though, so as to minimize mutual and individual tail-chasing and get right down to successfully making helpful adaptations. After all, it's not as if people didn't do well enough before the gravy days of flowing petroleum.
I appreciate your reply. Thank you. But to me (& most of my peer group), collapse is well underway. I live in Australia... one of the highest living standards in the world. BUT... I was born in 1947 in one of Australias capital cities (Brisbane). Today here are a list of problems not present in the 50's & 60's as I grew into my twenties & bought my first house that cost me 20% more than my annual salary. All of these problems are directly related to massive decline in available energy per capita & therefore the cost per unit of energy (petrol/gasoline for example.
Problems today not present in 1960's. Or present at extremely small unnoticed rates
1). Homelessness... & growing
2). Drug epidemic & drug addiction
3). Youth suicide (Australia about 7th globally.... so much for our high living standards).
4). Unaffordable housing. (My first house in 1979 cost me 20% more than my annual salary. Today average house price close to AUD$1.5m. Average full time salary about AUD$80,000. So just under 20 years of 100% of your (Before Tax) salary to buy an average home in a capital city..... This is COLLAPSE.).
5). Fuel costs. In 1970 in Australia petrol/gasoline cost 4 cents per litre (not a misprint). It cost me AUD$2.00 to fill my V8 Ford in 1970. Today my V8 Land Cruiser (120 Litre tank). Costs about $250 to fill. This is Energy Collapse due to decreasing EROEI.
6). In 1960's & 1970, it cost about $1 million AUD to build 2 km of 2 lane road... today, due to energy & employment costs it is AUD $500 million per km for freeways in cities.
7) Because of the above figure, infrastructure in Australia is horrendous. Our cities are traffic clogged, our secondary country roads are unimproved, our tertiary roads are pot holed disasters.
8). City life has declined alarmingly, small apartments, clogged streets, extensive 90+ minute commutes for outliers in cheaper fringe suburbs packed & inadequate public transport, no intracity metro systems. Add this to the drug & homeless problems noted above....City life declines alarmingly.
9). So escape to lovely country towns... we have lots of these. And yes, there is a major demographic shift to these lovely towns. But you should have done that 25 years ago. Now, real estate prices in these life style towns are the same as the cities... in other words, basically unaffordable to the average person.
10). Australia has huge coal, natural gas & uranium reserves.... BUT we have NO fuel/oil. We import 97% of our petrol/diesel needs. We are totally dependent on middle east Sheikhdoms & other dodgy countries for our agriculture, construction & transport industries, let alone private transport. We are 3 weeks (storage is 20 to 25 days) away from disaster. Let this sink in for a moment. Australia is less than 1 month away from no food in supermarkets, no agriculture transport, no food processing or distribution. If this is not impending collapse... please reassure me that solar panels & Tesla trucks will save us. OMG?
11). Because of our coal fired electricity system & our coal exports and our car culture and our cities horrendous public transport options... Australia is the highest per capita polluters of Carbon. BOOM. There goes our fresh, clean, green image
12). A final quick note... New Zealand's energy situation (No oil. No coal. No natural gas). Is even worse than Australias.
All of the above problems are a direct result of declining energy.
So... to me, civilisation decline is obvious. And worsening. Let's revisit this discussion and observations in 2030, and 2050.
Aa for Global Warming.. thank you for the reference. Yes, crops will still be grown in high temperatures of the future. But, increasing droughts, farm land deterioration, lower crop yields will lead to increasing food insecurity. I was in India last month.. my third visit since 1977. A classic case of overshoot, food insecurity and poverty. Go check out the families living in the dirt under freeways... offer their begging children a $5 bill.... and watch what happens. This is all a result of the collapse of our oil dependent civilisation. Add in sea level rise of over 1 metre by 2100... Mass migration inlands to places already overcrowded, city inundation (already happening in Miami & coastal areas everywhere... see Bangladesh disaster), food insecurity and energy decline as described in the article we are discussing. It's all over for millions of people. And that's collapse.
Thank you for your reply. I really appreciate it. As I stated in my first comment, EROEI (and Energy Density).... both declining significantly, are never discussed but are the critical parameters for industrial civilisation. Your article was brilliant.
Collapse in my mind means on the ground, about to die -- not dead. Remains to be seen if complete western civilizational death actually ensues or if sufficient adjustments to the changed condition are made by one and all (including those world travelers driving V8 landcruisers at home). Like I said, the fact that actual, irreversible collapse hasn't happened yet over the last 50 or so years since the problem hit us suggests to me the body civic is still somewhat successfully fighting it.
Ground is now being lost unmistakably, and no longer so slowly. It accelerated forcefully starting the COVID pandemic (or plandemic).
What I'd like to understand is... about both large city and country town housing: if these prices come to be, it must be because they can sell at these prices.
Since I can testify to the truth that basic housing is growing unaffordable for average people... I wonder if, and how, there are so "more than average people" who can pay those prices.
By the way, all the trends you report are taking place, with small and unessential differences, in Europe.
"... if these prices come to be, it must be because they can sell at these prices." No, at least in the US, the housing market is pretty much stagnant. People owning them at present are reluctant to drop their asking prices because they've got mortgages to pay off when selling (hence the still high prices). Here's a more complete description and explanation of what's going on -- in the US, anyway: https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/delistings-surge-as-housing-market
This is undoubtedly the most important metric in the coming collapse of industrial/technological civilization. Declining EROEI below maintenance needs PLUS Global Warming/Sea Level rise will doom modern civilization well before the end of this century.
Don't know that "collapse" is the best word to use here. The EROI data indicate the change has been very strongly affecting western-style societies since the 1970s oil shocks -- and still nothing acute has happened to indicate a rapid collapse is on order.
This lack of collapse when significant petroleum depletion is already here and having effects is the case, I suspect, because people have been working hard, consciously or not, to accommodate the various human systems to this depletion. The accommodations just haven't been precipitate, only piecemeal and incremental, because the depletion-caused changes haven't been precipitate either. I suspect, for example, that the recent marked changes to the US political climate mark will itself eventually prove to be a significant adaptive change to petroleum depletion.
Right now it appears that petroleum is functioning almost like a hydraulic fluid in that it is no longer is adding much net surplus energy to the functioning of the whole system, but is instead helping transmit energy from other, richer parts of energy-yielding systems like coal and natural gas.
As to that possible global warming you speak of, take a read of the agronomist Denis Murphy's review of humanity and previous changes in climate contained in his book, "People, Plants, and Genes" that he's kindly made open source at https://www.researchgate.net/publication/285992992_People_Plants_and_Genes_The_Story_of_Crops_and_Humanity. The book puts the matter of past climate changes affecting man into proper archeological and geological context. It is thorough, well-written, and can be anxiety-relieving.
" the recent marked changes to the US political climate mark will itself eventually prove to be a significant adaptive change to petroleum depletion."
Yes. It dawned on me too... that this "do it for the environment" propaganda from every direction + illiberal forceful measures by governments to, well, compel people to "do it for the environment" may be motivated by an awareness of global resource depletion/insufficiency, which is not disclosed to the general public for obvious reasons.
Wouldn't want to yell "Fire!" in a crowded theater, is what I think you are getting at as a reason for the possible governmental subterfuge/environmental propaganda. Better that we all know the real facts , though, so as to minimize mutual and individual tail-chasing and get right down to successfully making helpful adaptations. After all, it's not as if people didn't do well enough before the gravy days of flowing petroleum.